Contract terms
Will Cytisinicline launch WAC be < $500/month? · v1 (current)
Market metadata
Market
cytisinicline-launch-wac-lt-lt-500-month-2026-07-20
Market ID
6979e70a392788237c3a3afb
Rules version
v1
Rules published
Jan 28, 2026, 10:38 AM
Opens
Jan 28, 2026, 10:38 AM
Locks
Jul 20, 2026, 11:59 PM
Resolve-by
—
Measurement
WAC per month
Price range
< $500
Outcomes
This is a price-range bucket. YES resolves if the price is < $500; otherwise the outcome is NO. If the market is voided, stakes are refunded.
Resolution rules
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Cytisinicline is < $500/month, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Cytisinicline does not have an FDA approval for Smoking cessation (nicotine dependence) on or before 2026-07-20, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/03/3143614/0/en/Achieve-Life-Sciences-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-Cytisinicline-New-Drug-Application-for-Treatment-of-Nicotine-Dependence-for-Smoking-Cessation.html
Resolution procedure
Probiful admins resolve markets using the criteria above. If multiple sources disagree, admins follow the source hierarchy described in the resolution rules (if present).
Lock time: Jul 20, 2026, 11:59 PM. For “by date” markets, the phrase “on or before” is interpreted as inclusive of the calendar date shown in the contract.
If the market cannot be fairly resolved (e.g., no authoritative sources), it may be voided and stakes refunded.
Sources referenced
Accessed: Mar 26, 2026. This page is a snapshot of rules version v1.