Odds
Yes70%
Range contracts
Exactly one range settles YES.
Range
Chance
Yes
No
< $500
70%
$500–$1,000
50%
$1,000–$1,500
50%
$1,500–$2,000
50%
≥ $2,000
50%
Market details
Status
void
Positions
1
Volume
50 cr
Locks
Jul 20, 2026
Updated
Jan 28, 2026, 10:43 AM
Rules summary
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Cytisinicline is < $500/month, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Cytisinicline does not have an FDA approval for Smoking cessation (nicotine dependence) on or before 2026-07-20, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/03/3143614/0/en/Achieve-Life-Sciences-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-Cytisinicline-New-Drug-Application-for-Treatment-of-Nicotine-Dependence-for-Smoking-Cessation.html
Market context
Launch-WAC range market (< $500/month). Evaluation date: 2026-07-20. Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/03/3143614/0/en/Achieve-Life-Sciences-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-Cytisinicline-New-Drug-Application-for-Treatment-of-Nicotine-Dependence-for-Smoking-Cessation.html
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Community vote50% Yes · 0 votes
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