Contract terms
RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab monthly WAC at launch? · v1 (current)
Market metadata
Market
rp1-vusolimogene-oderparepvec-nivolumab-monthly-wac-at-launc-pugjc
Market ID
697b0f25b3eef31151c967f2
Rules version
v1
Rules published
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Opens
Jan 13, 2026, 02:05 PM
Locks
May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM
Resolve-by
—
Measurement
WAC per course
Price range
$230,000–$255,000
Outcomes
This is a price-range bucket. YES resolves if the price is $230,000–$255,000; otherwise the outcome is NO. If the market is voided, stakes are refunded.
Resolution rules
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab is ≥ $5,000/course, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab does not have an FDA approval for Advanced melanoma (post anti–PD-1 regimen; as described by sponsor) on or before 2026-05-10, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/20/3169221/0/en/Replimune-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-BLA-Resubmission-of-RP1-for-the-Treatment-of-Advanced-Melanoma.html
Range: $230,000-$255,000.
Resolution procedure
Probiful admins resolve markets using the criteria above. If multiple sources disagree, admins follow the source hierarchy described in the resolution rules (if present).
Lock time: May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM. For “by date” markets, the phrase “on or before” is interpreted as inclusive of the calendar date shown in the contract.
If the market cannot be fairly resolved (e.g., no authoritative sources), it may be voided and stakes refunded.
Sources referenced
Accessed: Mar 26, 2026. This page is a snapshot of rules version v1.