Odds
Yes50%
Range contracts
Exactly one range settles YES.
Range
Chance
Yes
No
< $5,000
50%
$5,000–$30,000
99%
$5,000–$30,000
50%
$30,000–$55,000
50%
$55,000–$80,000
50%
$80,000–$105,000
50%
$105,000–$130,000
50%
$130,000–$155,000
50%
$155,000–$180,000
50%
$180,000–$205,000
50%
$205,000–$230,000
50%
$230,000–$255,000
50%
$255,000–$280,000
50%
$280,000–$305,000
50%
$305,000–$330,000
50%
$330,000–$355,000
50%
$355,000–$380,000
50%
$380,000–$405,000
50%
$405,000–$430,000
50%
$430,000–$455,000
50%
$455,000–$480,000
50%
$480,000–$505,000
50%
≥ $505,000
50%
Market details
Status
open
Positions
0
Volume
0 cr
Locks
May 10, 2026
Updated
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Rules summary
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab is ≥ $5,000/course, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab does not have an FDA approval for Advanced melanoma (post anti–PD-1 regimen; as described by sponsor) on or before 2026-05-10, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/20/3169221/0/en/Replimune-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-BLA-Resubmission-of-RP1-for-the-Treatment-of-Advanced-Melanoma.html
Range: $480,000-$505,000.
Market context
Launch-WAC market anchored to $5,000/course. Evaluation date: 2026-05-10. Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/20/3169221/0/en/Replimune-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-BLA-Resubmission-of-RP1-for-the-Treatment-of-Advanced-Melanoma.html
People are also buying
BrowseVote on range
Community vote63% Yes · 8 votes
Vote