Contract terms
Will Medicare negotiate at least one GLP-1 drug by 2027? · v1 (current)
Market metadata
Market
medicare-negotiation-glp1-2027
Market ID
694558235cd285b7ccf3fb3f
Rules version
v1
Rules published
Dec 19, 2025, 01:50 PM
Opens
Dec 19, 2025, 01:50 PM
Locks
Jan 28, 2026, 01:50 PM
Resolve-by
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Measurement
WAC per year
Outcomes
This is a binary market with outcomes YES and NO. If the market is voided, stakes are refunded.
Resolution rules
Resolves YES if CMS publishes a negotiated price selection for any GLP-1 drug under IRA negotiation with an effective year <= 2027. Use CMS official publications as the source. Otherwise NO.
Resolution procedure
Probiful admins resolve markets using the criteria above. If multiple sources disagree, admins follow the source hierarchy described in the resolution rules (if present).
Lock time: Jan 28, 2026, 01:50 PM. For “by date” markets, the phrase “on or before” is interpreted as inclusive of the calendar date shown in the contract.
If the market cannot be fairly resolved (e.g., no authoritative sources), it may be voided and stakes refunded.
Sources referenced
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Accessed: Mar 26, 2026. This page is a snapshot of rules version v1.