Contract terms
Ivonescimab + chemotherapy monthly WAC at launch? · v1 (current)
Market metadata
Market
ivonescimab-chemotherapy-monthly-wac-at-launch-rnavz
Market ID
697b0f1bb3eef31151c9661c
Rules version
v1
Rules published
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Opens
Jan 13, 2026, 02:05 PM
Locks
Jan 30, 2027, 11:59 PM
Resolve-by
—
Measurement
WAC per month
Price range
$1,000–$6,000
Outcomes
This is a price-range bucket. YES resolves if the price is $1,000–$6,000; otherwise the outcome is NO. If the market is voided, stakes are refunded.
Resolution rules
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Ivonescimab + chemotherapy is ≥ $1,000/month, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Ivonescimab + chemotherapy does not have an FDA approval for EGFR-mutated NSCLC (2L+; as described by sponsor) on or before 2027-01-30, resolves NO.
Reference: https://smmttx.com/news/press-releases/news-details/2026/Summit-Therapeutics-Announces-Submission-of-Biologics-License-Application-BLA-to-U-S--FDA-Seeking-Approval-for-Ivonescimab-in-Combination-with-Chemotherapy-in-2L-Treatment-of-Patients-with-EGFRm-NSCLC/default.aspx
Range: $1,000-$6,000.
Resolution procedure
Probiful admins resolve markets using the criteria above. If multiple sources disagree, admins follow the source hierarchy described in the resolution rules (if present).
Lock time: Jan 30, 2027, 11:59 PM. For “by date” markets, the phrase “on or before” is interpreted as inclusive of the calendar date shown in the contract.
If the market cannot be fairly resolved (e.g., no authoritative sources), it may be voided and stakes refunded.
Sources referenced
Accessed: Mar 26, 2026. This page is a snapshot of rules version v1.