Odds
Yes50%
Range contracts
Exactly one range settles YES.
Range
Chance
Yes
No
< $1,000
50%
$1,000–$6,000
50%
$1,000–$6,000
50%
$6,000–$11,000
50%
$11,000–$16,000
50%
$16,000–$21,000
50%
$21,000–$26,000
50%
$26,000–$31,000
50%
$31,000–$36,000
50%
$36,000–$41,000
50%
$41,000–$46,000
50%
$46,000–$51,000
50%
$51,000–$56,000
50%
$56,000–$61,000
50%
$61,000–$66,000
50%
$66,000–$71,000
50%
$71,000–$76,000
50%
$76,000–$81,000
50%
$81,000–$86,000
50%
$86,000–$91,000
50%
$91,000–$96,000
50%
$96,000–$101,000
50%
$101,000–$106,000
50%
$106,000–$111,000
50%
$111,000–$116,000
50%
$116,000–$121,000
50%
$121,000–$126,000
50%
≥ $126,000
50%
Market details
Status
open
Positions
0
Volume
0 cr
Locks
Jan 30, 2027
Updated
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Rules summary
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Ivonescimab + chemotherapy is ≥ $1,000/month, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Ivonescimab + chemotherapy does not have an FDA approval for EGFR-mutated NSCLC (2L+; as described by sponsor) on or before 2027-01-30, resolves NO.
Reference: https://smmttx.com/news/press-releases/news-details/2026/Summit-Therapeutics-Announces-Submission-of-Biologics-License-Application-BLA-to-U-S--FDA-Seeking-Approval-for-Ivonescimab-in-Combination-with-Chemotherapy-in-2L-Treatment-of-Patients-with-EGFRm-NSCLC/default.aspx
Range: $56,000-$61,000.
Market context
Launch-WAC market anchored to $1,000/month. Evaluation date: 2027-01-30. Source: https://smmttx.com/news/press-releases/news-details/2026/Summit-Therapeutics-Announces-Submission-of-Biologics-License-Application-BLA-to-U-S--FDA-Seeking-Approval-for-Ivonescimab-in-Combination-with-Chemotherapy-in-2L-Treatment-of-Patients-with-EGFRm-NSCLC/default.aspx
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