Odds
Yes50%
Range contracts
Exactly one range settles YES.
Range
Chance
Yes
No
$0–$250
50%
$250–$500
50%
$500–$750
50%
$750–$1,000
50%
$1,000–$1,250
50%
$1,250–$1,500
50%
$1,500–$1,750
50%
$1,750–$2,000
50%
$2,000–$2,250
50%
$2,250–$2,500
50%
$2,500–$2,750
50%
$2,750–$3,000
50%
$3,000–$3,250
50%
$3,250–$3,500
50%
$3,500–$3,750
50%
$3,750–$4,000
50%
$4,000–$4,250
50%
$4,250–$4,500
50%
$4,500–$4,750
50%
$4,750–$5,000
50%
≥ $5,000
50%
Market details
Status
open
Positions
0
Volume
0 cr
Locks
Jul 16, 2026
Updated
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Rules summary
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Ensitrelvir (ensitrelvir fumaric acid; S-217622) is ≥ $5,000/course, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Ensitrelvir (ensitrelvir fumaric acid; S-217622) does not have an FDA approval for Prevention of COVID-19 following exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) on or before 2026-07-16, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.shionogi.com/global/en/news/2025/09/20250903.html
Range: $750-$1,000.
Market context
Launch-WAC market anchored to $5,000/course. Evaluation date: 2026-07-16. Source: https://www.shionogi.com/global/en/news/2025/09/20250903.html
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