Contract terms
Ensitrelvir (ensitrelvir fumaric acid; S-217622) monthly WAC at launch? · v1 (current)
Market metadata
Market
ensitrelvir-ensitrelvir-fumaric-acid-s-217622-monthly-wac-at-dnrkp
Market ID
697b0f21b3eef31151c9672f
Rules version
v1
Rules published
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Opens
Jan 13, 2026, 02:05 PM
Locks
Jul 16, 2026, 11:59 PM
Resolve-by
—
Measurement
WAC per course
Price range
$500–$750
Outcomes
This is a price-range bucket. YES resolves if the price is $500–$750; otherwise the outcome is NO. If the market is voided, stakes are refunded.
Resolution rules
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Ensitrelvir (ensitrelvir fumaric acid; S-217622) is ≥ $5,000/course, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Ensitrelvir (ensitrelvir fumaric acid; S-217622) does not have an FDA approval for Prevention of COVID-19 following exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) on or before 2026-07-16, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.shionogi.com/global/en/news/2025/09/20250903.html
Range: $500-$750.
Resolution procedure
Probiful admins resolve markets using the criteria above. If multiple sources disagree, admins follow the source hierarchy described in the resolution rules (if present).
Lock time: Jul 16, 2026, 11:59 PM. For “by date” markets, the phrase “on or before” is interpreted as inclusive of the calendar date shown in the contract.
If the market cannot be fairly resolved (e.g., no authoritative sources), it may be voided and stakes refunded.
Sources referenced
Accessed: Mar 26, 2026. This page is a snapshot of rules version v1.