Odds
Yes50%
Range contracts
Exactly one range settles YES.
Range
Chance
Yes
No
$0–$100
50%
$100–$200
50%
$200–$300
50%
$300–$400
50%
$400–$500
50%
$500–$600
50%
$600–$700
50%
$700–$800
50%
$800–$900
50%
$900–$1,000
50%
$1,000–$1,100
50%
$1,000–$1,100
50%
$1,100–$1,200
50%
$1,200–$1,300
50%
$1,300–$1,400
50%
$1,400–$1,500
50%
$1,500–$1,600
50%
$1,600–$1,700
50%
$1,700–$1,800
50%
$1,800–$1,900
50%
$1,900–$2,000
50%
≥ $2,000
50%
Market details
Status
open
Positions
0
Volume
0 cr
Locks
Jul 20, 2026
Updated
Jan 29, 2026, 07:41 AM
Rules summary
Resolves YES if the initial U.S. wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at launch for Cytisinicline is ≥ $1,000/month, using the first publicly available WAC from a sponsor price announcement or a pricing compendium (e.g., Red Book / Medi-Span).
If Cytisinicline does not have an FDA approval for Smoking cessation (nicotine dependence) on or before 2026-07-20, resolves NO.
Reference: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/03/3143614/0/en/Achieve-Life-Sciences-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-Cytisinicline-New-Drug-Application-for-Treatment-of-Nicotine-Dependence-for-Smoking-Cessation.html
Range: $1,900-$2,000.
Market context
Launch-WAC market anchored to $1,000/month. Evaluation date: 2026-07-20. Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/03/3143614/0/en/Achieve-Life-Sciences-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-Cytisinicline-New-Drug-Application-for-Treatment-of-Nicotine-Dependence-for-Smoking-Cessation.html
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Community vote67% Yes · 3 votes
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